Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Zhejiang Publishing & Media Co., Ltd. (601921.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.50 - $8.58$6.92
Multi-Stage$13.08 - $14.40$13.72
Blended Fair Value$10.32
Current Price$8.25
Upside25.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-6.51%0.00%0.390.350.330.100.190.550.270.440.000.00
YoY Growth--11.19%7.09%241.54%-49.75%-65.05%104.50%-39.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.00%3.95%3.95%1.16%1.29%3.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,282.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)666.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)615.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)256.51160.3296.19
Cash Retained (M)615.89615.89615.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-256.51-160.32-96.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)359.38455.57519.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,220.682,220.682,220.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.460.510.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.50$6.92$8.58
Upside / Downside-33.28%-16.08%4.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,282.561,269.731,257.031,244.461,232.021,219.701,256.29
Payout Ratio51.98%59.58%67.19%74.79%82.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)666.67756.55844.57930.761,015.131,097.731,162.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)705.02712.21719.40
Year 2 PV (M)733.43748.47763.67
Year 3 PV (M)753.21776.50800.27
Year 4 PV (M)765.53797.26829.96
Year 5 PV (M)771.43811.60853.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,314.4826,632.6628,005.19
Equity Value (M)29,043.0930,478.7031,971.93
Shares Outstanding (M)2,220.682,220.682,220.68
Fair Value$13.08$13.72$14.40
Upside / Downside58.53%66.36%74.51%

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