Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chongqing Sanfeng Environment Group Corp., Ltd. (601827.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.35 - $59.40$30.88
Multi-Stage$14.85 - $16.26$15.55
Blended Fair Value$23.21
Current Price$8.18
Upside183.78%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.06%0.00%0.400.390.420.340.190.160.220.080.060.05
YoY Growth--2.29%-7.02%21.29%85.67%16.47%-26.61%179.43%19.39%21.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.71%5.05%5.93%4.39%2.19%1.62%2.20%0.79%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,262.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)188.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,073.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)252.43157.7794.66
Cash Retained (M)1,073.361,073.361,073.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-252.43-157.77-94.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)820.93915.59978.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,680.321,680.321,680.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.540.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.540.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.69
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate4.54%5.54%6.54%
Fair Value$19.35$30.88$59.40
Upside / Downside136.57%277.52%626.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,262.141,332.091,405.911,483.831,566.061,652.861,702.44
Payout Ratio14.96%29.97%44.97%59.98%74.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)188.78399.17632.30890.041,174.411,487.571,574.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate4.54%5.54%6.54%
Year 1 PV (M)366.82370.33373.84
Year 2 PV (M)533.96544.23554.59
Year 3 PV (M)690.70710.72731.11
Year 4 PV (M)837.52870.03903.48
Year 5 PV (M)974.871,022.401,071.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,552.5622,603.2823,694.58
Equity Value (M)24,956.4326,120.9727,329.35
Shares Outstanding (M)1,680.321,680.321,680.32
Fair Value$14.85$15.55$16.26
Upside / Downside81.57%90.04%98.83%

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