Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Anhui Xinhua Media Co., Ltd. (601801.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.13 - $17.27$11.55
Multi-Stage$6.88 - $7.52$7.20
Blended Fair Value$9.37
Current Price$6.52
Upside43.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.18%16.48%0.430.190.170.160.160.180.170.160.120.11
YoY Growth--127.45%8.82%6.25%0.00%-8.57%2.94%6.25%34.52%13.04%15.00%
Dividend Yield--6.28%2.36%2.74%3.13%3.36%3.78%2.10%1.65%0.72%0.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)848.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)220.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)628.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.75106.0963.66
Cash Retained (M)628.25628.25628.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.75-106.09-63.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)458.50522.16564.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,943.351,943.351,943.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Fair Value$8.13$11.55$17.27
Upside / Downside24.65%77.07%164.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)848.75895.14944.07995.671,050.091,107.481,140.71
Payout Ratio25.98%38.78%51.59%64.39%77.20%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)220.50347.17487.02641.13810.62996.731,055.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Year 1 PV (M)315.61318.63321.65
Year 2 PV (M)402.50410.24418.06
Year 3 PV (M)481.69495.66509.89
Year 4 PV (M)553.67575.18597.31
Year 5 PV (M)618.90649.10680.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,999.1011,535.7212,093.08
Equity Value (M)13,371.4813,984.5314,620.46
Shares Outstanding (M)1,943.351,943.351,943.35
Fair Value$6.88$7.20$7.52
Upside / Downside5.53%10.37%15.39%

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