Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qilu Bank Co., Ltd. (601665.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47.33 - $171.15$150.03
Multi-Stage$21.59 - $23.63$22.59
Blended Fair Value$86.31
Current Price$5.74
Upside1,403.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.47%21.73%0.320.260.280.270.200.280.340.210.170.06
YoY Growth--20.65%-7.81%6.82%34.10%-29.09%-18.78%61.21%24.15%177.61%40.12%
Dividend Yield--5.20%5.88%6.96%5.09%2.56%3.61%4.45%2.76%2.22%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,507.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,584.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,922.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,101.49688.43413.06
Cash Retained (M)3,922.513,922.513,922.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,101.49-688.43-413.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,821.023,234.083,509.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,399.746,399.746,399.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.510.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.510.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47.33$150.03$171.15
Upside / Downside724.61%2,513.83%2,881.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,507.445,865.426,246.686,652.717,085.147,545.677,772.04
Payout Ratio28.78%41.02%53.27%65.51%77.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,584.932,406.143,327.404,358.275,509.096,791.107,189.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,226.892,248.002,269.11
Year 2 PV (M)2,850.122,904.412,959.21
Year 3 PV (M)3,455.023,554.213,655.27
Year 4 PV (M)4,042.004,197.444,357.33
Year 5 PV (M)4,611.434,834.165,065.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)120,998.86126,843.16132,911.12
Equity Value (M)138,184.33144,581.37151,217.45
Shares Outstanding (M)6,399.746,399.746,399.74
Fair Value$21.59$22.59$23.63
Upside / Downside276.17%293.58%311.65%

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