Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd. (601601.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.03 - $86.31$69.39
Multi-Stage$63.61 - $69.73$66.61
Blended Fair Value$68.00
Current Price$35.12
Upside93.63%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.51%7.83%1.351.291.651.301.130.940.991.031.150.70
YoY Growth--4.58%-21.41%26.62%15.01%20.00%-5.05%-3.80%-10.57%64.89%9.88%
Dividend Yield--4.21%5.45%6.35%5.67%2.99%3.34%2.85%3.04%4.21%2.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52,350.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,649.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)48,701.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,470.006,543.753,926.25
Cash Retained (M)48,701.0048,701.0048,701.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,470.00-6,543.75-3,926.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)38,231.0042,157.2544,774.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,620.009,620.009,620.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.974.384.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.974.384.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.354.765.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Fair Value$55.03$69.39$86.31
Upside / Downside56.68%97.59%145.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52,350.0053,809.3355,309.3356,851.1558,435.9660,064.9461,866.88
Payout Ratio6.97%23.58%40.18%56.79%73.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,649.0012,686.2622,224.5332,284.7242,888.5354,058.4457,226.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Year 1 PV (M)11,437.3211,549.6911,662.05
Year 2 PV (M)18,064.0218,420.7018,780.87
Year 3 PV (M)23,657.5624,361.7025,079.67
Year 4 PV (M)28,333.8229,463.7830,627.21
Year 5 PV (M)32,197.2233,810.1935,487.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)498,260.23523,221.37549,173.01
Equity Value (M)611,950.18640,827.43670,809.98
Shares Outstanding (M)9,620.009,620.009,620.00
Fair Value$63.61$66.61$69.73
Upside / Downside81.13%89.68%98.55%

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