Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

Sinotrans Limited (601598.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.89 - $101.75$40.74
Multi-Stage$14.51 - $15.88$15.18
Blended Fair Value$27.96
Current Price$6.39
Upside337.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.23%20.99%0.290.240.290.120.120.230.070.070.070.06
YoY Growth--18.68%-14.73%134.19%-0.04%-48.07%253.67%-8.65%9.52%10.53%39.66%
Dividend Yield--5.54%3.90%6.86%3.05%2.83%6.71%1.06%1.49%1.36%1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,771.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,142.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,629.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)754.34471.46282.88
Cash Retained (M)1,629.091,629.091,629.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-754.34-471.46-282.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)874.751,157.631,346.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,292.617,292.617,292.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.34%5.34%6.34%
Fair Value$19.89$40.74$101.75
Upside / Downside211.31%537.50%1,492.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,771.723,973.314,185.674,409.384,645.054,893.315,040.11
Payout Ratio56.81%63.45%70.08%76.72%83.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,142.632,520.912,933.513,383.013,872.184,403.984,662.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.34%5.34%6.34%
Year 1 PV (M)2,344.252,366.722,389.19
Year 2 PV (M)2,536.772,585.632,634.95
Year 3 PV (M)2,720.472,799.442,879.92
Year 4 PV (M)2,895.633,008.243,124.10
Year 5 PV (M)3,062.533,212.123,367.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)92,234.0796,739.28101,418.84
Equity Value (M)105,793.73110,711.43115,814.50
Shares Outstanding (M)7,292.617,292.617,292.61
Fair Value$14.51$15.18$15.88
Upside / Downside127.03%137.58%148.53%

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