Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Industrial Bank Co., Ltd. (601166.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.21 - $121.00$82.94
Multi-Stage$76.20 - $83.47$79.77
Blended Fair Value$81.36
Current Price$19.85
Upside309.86%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.30%15.30%2.402.612.242.341.991.951.941.881.440.48
YoY Growth---8.09%16.61%-4.07%17.35%2.33%0.55%3.08%30.29%199.79%-16.96%
Dividend Yield--11.12%16.51%13.27%11.30%8.27%12.23%10.38%11.25%8.89%3.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)77,282.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47,938.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)29,344.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,456.409,660.255,796.15
Cash Retained (M)29,344.0029,344.0029,344.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,456.40-9,660.25-5,796.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,887.6019,683.7523,547.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,597.8022,597.8022,597.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.871.04
LTM Dividend per Share2.122.122.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.871.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.742.993.16
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Fair Value$59.21$82.94$121.00
Upside / Downside198.30%317.86%509.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)77,282.0079,835.7982,473.9785,199.3388,014.7490,923.2093,650.89
Payout Ratio62.03%67.62%73.22%78.81%84.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47,938.0053,988.1360,385.7767,147.2874,289.7281,830.8886,627.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate2.30%3.30%4.30%
Year 1 PV (M)49,953.1050,441.3850,929.66
Year 2 PV (M)51,696.7152,712.2953,737.75
Year 3 PV (M)53,188.8754,763.8956,369.70
Year 4 PV (M)54,448.4156,608.7058,832.65
Year 5 PV (M)55,492.9558,258.6461,133.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,457,181.781,529,805.591,605,296.54
Equity Value (M)1,721,961.811,802,590.491,886,299.81
Shares Outstanding (M)22,597.8022,597.8022,597.80
Fair Value$76.20$79.77$83.47
Upside / Downside283.88%301.86%320.52%

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