DDM Analysis: 601088.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$191.02 - $567.55	$531.85
Multi-Stage	$92.27 - $100.92	$96.52
Blended Fair Value	$314.18
Current Price	$40.54
Upside	674.99%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.73%	9.51%	2.26	2.55	2.69	1.81	1.39	0.88	0.91	0.46	0.32	0.74
YoY Growth	-	-	-11.37%	-5.11%	48.47%	30.33%	57.64%	-3.30%	97.84%	43.74%	-56.75%	-18.69%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.89%	6.64%	9.54%	6.08%	6.91%	5.42%	4.52%	2.21%	1.65%	5.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	57,004.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	46,370.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	10,634.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11,400.80	7,125.50	4,275.30
Cash Retained (M)	10,634.00	10,634.00	10,634.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11,400.80	-7,125.50	-4,275.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-766.80	3,508.50	6,358.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	19,871.79	19,871.79	19,871.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	0.18	0.32
LTM Dividend per Share	2.33	2.33	2.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	0.18	0.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.29	2.51	2.65
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	4.95%	5.95%	6.95%
Fair Value	$191.02	$531.85	$567.55
Upside / Downside	371.18%	1,211.91%	1,299.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	57,004.00	60,393.23	63,983.96	67,788.19	71,818.60	76,088.64	78,371.30
Payout Ratio	81.35%	83.08%	84.81%	86.54%	88.27%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	46,370.00	50,172.36	54,262.94	58,662.59	63,393.58	68,479.78	72,493.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	4.95%	5.95%	6.95%
Year 1 PV (M)	46,794.53	47,240.42	47,686.31
Year 2 PV (M)	47,202.44	48,106.29	49,018.70
Year 3 PV (M)	47,594.07	48,967.61	50,367.33
Year 4 PV (M)	47,969.75	49,824.42	51,732.35
Year 5 PV (M)	48,329.81	50,676.72	53,113.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,595,627.56	1,673,111.87	1,753,577.50
Equity Value (M)	1,833,518.16	1,917,927.33	2,005,496.14
Shares Outstanding (M)	19,871.79	19,871.79	19,871.79
Fair Value	$92.27	$96.52	$100.92
Upside / Downside	127.60%	138.07%	148.94%

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China Shenhua Energy Company Limited (601088.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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