Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Gem-Year Industrial Co.,Ltd. (601002.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.52 - $2.18$1.84
Multi-Stage$3.24 - $3.56$3.40
Blended Fair Value$2.62
Current Price$5.22
Upside-49.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS78.74%-1.57%0.100.100.000.050.000.010.080.000.000.10
YoY Growth---1.89%3,763.69%-94.73%0.00%-100.00%-93.48%2,822.14%26.64%-97.73%-14.73%
Dividend Yield--2.13%2.60%0.06%0.84%0.00%0.09%1.11%0.03%0.02%1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)211.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)132.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.2926.4315.86
Cash Retained (M)78.5978.5978.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.29-26.43-15.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.3052.1662.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)956.86956.86956.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate-3.57%-2.57%-1.57%
Fair Value$1.52$1.84$2.18
Upside / Downside-70.88%-64.67%-58.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)211.46206.02200.73195.57190.54185.64191.21
Payout Ratio62.84%68.27%73.70%79.13%84.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)132.87140.65147.94154.76161.13167.08176.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate-3.57%-2.57%-1.57%
Year 1 PV (M)129.32130.66132.00
Year 2 PV (M)125.06127.67130.30
Year 3 PV (M)120.29124.07127.93
Year 4 PV (M)115.15120.00125.01
Year 5 PV (M)109.78115.59121.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,501.492,633.912,771.89
Equity Value (M)3,101.093,251.913,408.77
Shares Outstanding (M)956.86956.86956.86
Fair Value$3.24$3.40$3.56
Upside / Downside-37.91%-34.89%-31.75%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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