Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Yueyang Forest & Paper Co., Ltd. (600963.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.93 - $4.93$3.81
Multi-Stage$12.69 - $14.01$13.34
Blended Fair Value$8.57
Current Price$4.42
Upside93.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.74%-9.47%0.110.240.230.180.160.160.170.240.240.27
YoY Growth---55.57%5.58%31.52%10.81%-2.20%-4.44%-30.72%0.81%-9.98%-7.93%
Dividend Yield--2.36%4.90%3.24%3.02%2.64%4.43%4.39%5.30%3.59%5.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)423.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)207.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)216.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.7652.9831.79
Cash Retained (M)216.34216.34216.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.76-52.98-31.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)131.58163.37184.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,684.561,684.561,684.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate4.44%4.44%4.44%
Growth Rate-2.26%-1.26%-0.26%
Fair Value$2.93$3.81$4.93
Upside / Downside-33.63%-13.81%11.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)423.81418.45413.16407.94402.78397.68409.61
Payout Ratio48.95%57.16%65.37%73.58%81.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)207.47239.20270.09300.16329.43357.91378.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.44%4.44%4.44%
Growth Rate-2.26%-1.26%-0.26%
Year 1 PV (M)226.71229.03231.35
Year 2 PV (M)242.62247.61252.65
Year 3 PV (M)255.55263.48271.57
Year 4 PV (M)265.83276.87288.26
Year 5 PV (M)273.73288.02302.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,109.1921,159.2222,252.65
Equity Value (M)21,373.6322,464.2323,599.39
Shares Outstanding (M)1,684.561,684.561,684.56
Fair Value$12.69$13.34$14.01
Upside / Downside187.06%201.71%216.95%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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