Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tonghua Dongbao Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (600867.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.42 - $20.50$14.39
Multi-Stage$16.97 - $18.61$17.77
Blended Fair Value$16.08
Current Price$8.29
Upside93.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.02%10.28%0.260.260.570.220.210.210.180.150.120.11
YoY Growth---0.16%-54.71%157.81%5.32%-0.79%18.86%20.35%25.19%10.26%10.59%
Dividend Yield--3.42%2.38%4.84%2.18%1.70%2.01%0.99%0.67%0.84%0.77%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,225.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)990.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)234.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)245.18153.2491.94
Cash Retained (M)234.97234.97234.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-245.18-153.24-91.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)-10.2181.73143.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,911.541,911.541,911.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.040.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.510.560.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Fair Value$10.42$14.39$20.50
Upside / Downside25.66%73.59%147.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,225.881,254.171,283.111,312.721,343.011,374.011,415.23
Payout Ratio80.83%82.67%84.50%86.33%88.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)990.921,036.781,084.231,133.311,184.091,236.601,309.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate1.31%2.31%3.31%
Year 1 PV (M)965.82975.36984.89
Year 2 PV (M)940.91959.57978.42
Year 3 PV (M)916.20943.60971.54
Year 4 PV (M)891.74927.47964.27
Year 5 PV (M)867.55911.22956.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,855.4529,257.6530,715.77
Equity Value (M)32,437.6633,974.8835,571.52
Shares Outstanding (M)1,911.541,911.541,911.54
Fair Value$16.97$17.77$18.61
Upside / Downside104.70%114.40%124.47%

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