Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group) Co., Ltd. (600785.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$91.16 - $107.58$100.74
Multi-Stage$137.35 - $151.98$144.52
Blended Fair Value$122.63
Current Price$13.07
Upside838.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.41%-2.08%0.320.230.140.160.200.180.110.230.110.10
YoY Growth--38.24%68.79%-12.12%-20.42%10.00%68.98%-53.80%118.59%3.26%-74.37%
Dividend Yield--2.84%1.20%0.81%1.42%1.68%1.28%0.59%1.10%0.44%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)133.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)74.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.7016.6910.01
Cash Retained (M)58.8258.8258.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.70-16.69-10.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.1142.1348.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)227.11227.11227.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate-18.51%-18.51%-18.51%
Growth Rate-3.08%-2.08%-1.08%
Fair Value$91.16$100.74$107.58
Upside / Downside597.50%670.76%723.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)133.51130.74128.02125.35122.75120.19123.80
Payout Ratio55.95%62.76%69.57%76.38%83.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)74.7082.0589.0695.74102.11108.18114.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-18.51%-18.51%-18.51%
Growth Rate-3.08%-2.08%-1.08%
Year 1 PV (M)99.66100.69101.72
Year 2 PV (M)131.40134.13136.88
Year 3 PV (M)171.59176.96182.44
Year 4 PV (M)222.30231.61241.22
Year 5 PV (M)286.05301.12316.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,281.6231,876.3833,537.63
Equity Value (M)31,192.6232,820.8934,516.70
Shares Outstanding (M)227.11227.11227.11
Fair Value$137.35$144.52$151.98
Upside / Downside950.85%1,005.71%1,062.84%

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