Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changjiang Publishing & Media Co.,Ltd (600757.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$66.71 - $181.99$170.54
Multi-Stage$28.87 - $31.62$30.22
Blended Fair Value$100.38
Current Price$8.51
Upside1,079.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.42%40.02%0.400.320.370.350.200.150.100.050.030.03
YoY Growth--25.00%-13.54%5.65%75.16%31.98%50.22%101.49%58.21%13.72%101.46%
Dividend Yield--4.61%3.91%5.62%5.53%3.70%2.89%1.35%0.72%0.38%0.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,115.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)498.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)616.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)223.03139.3983.64
Cash Retained (M)616.94616.94616.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-223.03-139.39-83.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)393.92477.55533.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,213.711,213.711,213.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.390.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.390.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.740.800.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.07%6.07%7.07%
Fair Value$66.71$170.54$181.99
Upside / Downside683.88%1,904.04%2,038.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,115.141,182.811,254.581,330.711,411.461,497.121,542.03
Payout Ratio44.68%53.74%62.81%71.87%80.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)498.19635.64787.94956.391,142.371,347.401,426.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.07%6.07%7.07%
Year 1 PV (M)592.75598.39604.03
Year 2 PV (M)685.18698.29711.51
Year 3 PV (M)775.53797.89820.67
Year 4 PV (M)863.83897.19931.50
Year 5 PV (M)950.11996.191,044.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,178.1232,690.3434,260.67
Equity Value (M)35,045.5236,678.2838,372.44
Shares Outstanding (M)1,213.711,213.711,213.71
Fair Value$28.87$30.22$31.62
Upside / Downside239.30%255.11%271.51%

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