Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited (600598.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.85 - $11.15$8.78
Multi-Stage$10.22 - $11.18$10.69
Blended Fair Value$9.74
Current Price$14.37
Upside-32.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.90%38.00%0.440.420.400.400.380.400.270.340.290.39
YoY Growth--4.57%5.00%-0.04%5.30%-4.96%48.10%-20.60%15.25%-24.88%2,140.25%
Dividend Yield--3.17%3.39%2.98%2.64%2.43%2.32%2.68%3.07%2.62%3.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,096.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)978.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)118.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)219.31137.0782.24
Cash Retained (M)118.34118.34118.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-219.31-137.07-82.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)-100.98-18.7336.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,777.681,777.681,777.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.550.550.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate0.94%1.94%2.94%
Fair Value$6.85$8.78$11.15
Upside / Downside-52.30%-38.90%-22.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,096.571,117.881,139.591,161.731,184.291,207.301,243.52
Payout Ratio89.21%89.37%89.52%89.68%89.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)978.24999.011,020.221,041.881,063.991,086.571,150.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate0.94%1.94%2.94%
Year 1 PV (M)914.16923.22932.27
Year 2 PV (M)854.28871.29888.47
Year 3 PV (M)798.32822.28846.72
Year 4 PV (M)746.02776.02806.93
Year 5 PV (M)697.15732.37769.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,166.5814,882.3415,626.74
Equity Value (M)18,176.5119,007.5219,870.12
Shares Outstanding (M)1,777.681,777.681,777.68
Fair Value$10.22$10.69$11.18
Upside / Downside-28.85%-25.59%-22.22%

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