Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd (600582.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.08 - $133.85$125.44
Multi-Stage$17.92 - $19.59$18.74
Blended Fair Value$72.09
Current Price$5.93
Upside1,115.71%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.00%16.49%0.240.200.180.150.120.100.070.060.050.07
YoY Growth--16.28%11.27%18.18%32.65%12.80%38.99%33.24%11.23%-29.29%38.05%
Dividend Yield--3.68%2.82%3.59%3.14%3.46%3.44%1.86%1.30%0.88%1.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,786.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,517.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,269.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)557.21348.25208.95
Cash Retained (M)1,269.021,269.021,269.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-557.21-348.25-208.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)711.82920.771,060.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,139.374,139.374,139.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.220.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.370.370.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.220.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.08$125.44$133.85
Upside / Downside592.70%2,015.36%2,157.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,786.032,967.123,159.983,365.383,584.133,817.103,931.61
Payout Ratio54.45%61.56%68.67%75.78%82.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,517.001,826.572,169.972,550.292,970.893,435.393,636.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,692.901,708.941,724.99
Year 2 PV (M)1,863.981,899.491,935.33
Year 3 PV (M)2,030.362,088.652,148.04
Year 4 PV (M)2,192.122,276.422,363.14
Year 5 PV (M)2,349.362,462.832,580.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,051.2667,144.9670,357.06
Equity Value (M)74,179.9877,581.2981,109.20
Shares Outstanding (M)4,139.374,139.374,139.37
Fair Value$17.92$18.74$19.59
Upside / Downside202.20%216.06%230.43%

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