Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Time Publishing and Media Co., Ltd. (600551.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: PublishingSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.23 - $121.85$114.19
Multi-Stage$19.93 - $21.80$20.85
Blended Fair Value$67.52
Current Price$8.51
Upside693.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.44%11.06%0.500.190.130.220.010.150.160.200.190.20
YoY Growth--157.15%54.35%-44.03%1,423.83%-90.45%-2.46%-20.27%4.31%-5.02%14.68%
Dividend Yield--6.05%2.03%1.51%3.29%0.29%2.90%2.06%2.33%1.31%1.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)415.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)286.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)128.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)83.0751.9231.15
Cash Retained (M)128.88128.88128.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-83.07-51.92-31.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)45.8176.9697.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)677.95677.95677.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.110.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$71.23$114.19$121.85
Upside / Downside736.98%1,241.80%1,331.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)415.36442.36471.12501.74534.35569.09586.16
Payout Ratio68.97%73.18%77.38%81.59%85.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)286.48323.71364.56409.36458.44512.18542.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.23%6.23%6.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)301.88304.74307.60
Year 2 PV (M)317.04323.08329.18
Year 3 PV (M)331.99341.52351.23
Year 4 PV (M)346.72360.05373.77
Year 5 PV (M)361.23378.67396.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,853.6912,426.2313,020.68
Equity Value (M)13,512.5414,134.2914,779.24
Shares Outstanding (M)677.95677.95677.95
Fair Value$19.93$20.85$21.80
Upside / Downside134.21%144.99%156.17%

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