Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (600519.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,983.31 - $14,270.77$13,373.80
Multi-Stage$2,314.56 - $2,531.20$2,420.90
Blended Fair Value$7,897.35
Current Price$1,443.99
Upside446.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.37%31.23%54.8325.9443.6419.3217.0514.5611.016.806.234.02
YoY Growth--111.33%-40.55%125.91%13.32%17.10%32.18%62.06%9.05%55.09%11.00%
Dividend Yield--3.51%1.51%2.40%1.12%0.85%1.31%1.28%0.99%1.61%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)90,027.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64,671.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)25,355.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18,005.4711,253.426,752.05
Cash Retained (M)25,355.6625,355.6625,355.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-18,005.47-11,253.42-6,752.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,350.1914,102.2518,603.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,254.611,254.611,254.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.8611.2414.83
LTM Dividend per Share51.5551.5551.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.8611.2414.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend57.4162.7966.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,983.31$13,373.80$14,270.77
Upside / Downside452.86%826.17%888.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)90,027.3495,879.12102,111.26108,748.49115,817.14123,345.26127,045.62
Payout Ratio71.84%75.47%79.10%82.73%86.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64,671.6872,358.5180,771.3989,972.24100,027.93111,010.73117,517.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.26%6.26%6.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)67,457.2068,096.6068,736.01
Year 2 PV (M)70,199.6471,536.7572,886.47
Year 3 PV (M)72,899.4974,992.1877,124.53
Year 4 PV (M)75,557.2178,462.9381,451.66
Year 5 PV (M)78,173.2781,949.0785,869.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,539,571.582,662,233.842,789,590.67
Equity Value (M)2,903,858.403,037,271.373,175,658.72
Shares Outstanding (M)1,254.611,254.611,254.61
Fair Value$2,314.56$2,420.90$2,531.20
Upside / Downside60.29%67.65%75.29%

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