Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Aeolus Tyre Co., Ltd. (600469.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.30 - $60.49$56.66
Multi-Stage$33.48 - $36.90$35.16
Blended Fair Value$45.91
Current Price$5.81
Upside690.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.04%3.92%0.340.100.090.130.040.170.170.240.620.37
YoY Growth--243.13%14.16%-32.24%225.42%-77.67%1.05%-26.97%-61.99%67.84%61.75%
Dividend Yield--5.76%1.67%1.65%2.93%0.71%3.62%3.59%4.85%5.21%3.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)228.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)87.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.7628.6017.16
Cash Retained (M)87.9487.9487.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.76-28.60-17.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)42.1959.3570.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)717.53717.53717.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.29
WACC / Discount Rate-0.60%-0.60%-0.60%
Growth Rate0.55%1.55%2.55%
Fair Value$51.30$56.66$60.49
Upside / Downside782.91%875.29%941.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)228.78232.33235.94239.60243.31247.09254.50
Payout Ratio61.56%67.25%72.94%78.62%84.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.84156.24172.08188.38205.14222.38235.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.60%-0.60%-0.60%
Growth Rate0.55%1.55%2.55%
Year 1 PV (M)155.64157.18158.73
Year 2 PV (M)170.76174.17177.62
Year 3 PV (M)186.21191.82197.55
Year 4 PV (M)202.00210.16218.56
Year 5 PV (M)218.13229.20240.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,091.5824,262.9025,481.27
Equity Value (M)24,024.3325,225.4326,474.43
Shares Outstanding (M)717.53717.53717.53
Fair Value$33.48$35.16$36.90
Upside / Downside476.28%505.10%535.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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