Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited (600188.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$136.97 - $228.00$213.67
Multi-Stage$37.72 - $41.25$39.45
Blended Fair Value$126.56
Current Price$13.31
Upside850.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.13%23.93%1.922.561.010.490.460.630.740.460.340.26
YoY Growth---24.71%152.42%108.50%5.19%-26.39%-15.31%60.99%33.94%33.99%13.79%
Dividend Yield--14.44%13.95%5.55%2.47%6.81%14.15%12.99%6.51%5.88%4.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,508.78
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,924.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,583.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,301.761,438.60863.16
Cash Retained (M)2,583.902,583.902,583.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,301.76-1,438.60-863.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)282.141,145.301,720.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)10,038.6310,038.6310,038.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.110.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.890.890.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.110.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.001.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$136.97$213.67$228.00
Upside / Downside929.10%1,505.33%1,613.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,508.7812,256.8513,053.5513,902.0314,805.6615,768.0316,241.07
Payout Ratio77.55%80.04%82.53%85.02%87.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,924.889,810.2310,772.9711,819.4212,956.3914,191.2215,022.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9,150.229,236.959,323.68
Year 2 PV (M)9,372.169,550.679,730.87
Year 3 PV (M)9,590.759,866.0610,146.60
Year 4 PV (M)9,806.0110,183.1210,571.01
Year 5 PV (M)10,017.9810,501.8611,004.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)330,747.67346,722.90363,309.55
Equity Value (M)378,684.78396,061.56414,085.95
Shares Outstanding (M)10,038.6310,038.6310,038.63
Fair Value$37.72$39.45$41.25
Upside / Downside183.42%196.42%209.91%

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