Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated (600098.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.02 - $130.82$122.60
Multi-Stage$21.04 - $23.01$22.01
Blended Fair Value$72.30
Current Price$6.59
Upside997.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.59%16.25%0.530.200.100.130.040.080.080.080.150.14
YoY Growth--163.02%100.00%-22.50%240.00%-51.17%0.00%0.00%-47.37%5.56%19.91%
Dividend Yield--8.27%3.12%1.69%2.04%0.57%1.34%1.18%1.26%1.57%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,303.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,611.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)692.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)460.77287.98172.79
Cash Retained (M)692.79692.79692.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-460.77-287.98-172.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)232.02404.81520.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,502.363,502.363,502.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.120.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$71.02$122.60$130.82
Upside / Downside977.66%1,760.34%1,885.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,303.832,453.582,613.072,782.912,963.803,156.453,251.14
Payout Ratio69.93%73.94%77.96%81.97%85.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,611.051,814.262,037.082,281.202,548.452,840.813,007.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,691.001,707.021,723.05
Year 2 PV (M)1,769.681,803.391,837.42
Year 3 PV (M)1,847.121,900.151,954.18
Year 4 PV (M)1,923.331,997.292,073.37
Year 5 PV (M)1,998.312,094.832,195.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)64,460.5067,573.9670,806.59
Equity Value (M)73,689.9377,076.6580,589.65
Shares Outstanding (M)3,502.363,502.363,502.36
Fair Value$21.04$22.01$23.01
Upside / Downside219.27%233.95%249.17%

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