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Definitive Analysis

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China Minsheng Banking Corp., Ltd. (600016.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.31 - $11.73$9.31
Multi-Stage$13.52 - $14.85$14.17
Blended Fair Value$11.74
Current Price$3.98
Upside195.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.49%16.78%0.700.730.540.240.680.650.530.530.430.24
YoY Growth---4.59%34.79%122.30%-64.09%4.90%23.02%-0.21%24.14%79.98%59.74%
Dividend Yield--17.95%18.25%15.78%6.41%13.50%11.39%8.18%7.95%6.03%3.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,352.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18,549.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,803.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,070.403,794.002,276.40
Cash Retained (M)11,803.0011,803.0011,803.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,070.40-3,794.00-2,276.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,732.608,009.009,526.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43,840.7443,840.7443,840.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.180.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.51%0.49%1.49%
Fair Value$7.31$9.31$11.73
Upside / Downside83.63%133.88%194.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,352.0030,501.2030,651.1430,801.8130,953.2231,105.3832,038.54
Payout Ratio61.11%66.89%72.67%78.45%84.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18,549.0020,402.3622,273.5024,162.5326,069.6027,994.8429,635.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-0.51%0.49%1.49%
Year 1 PV (M)18,872.3419,062.0319,251.71
Year 2 PV (M)19,058.0719,443.1019,831.99
Year 3 PV (M)19,123.9819,706.4520,300.62
Year 4 PV (M)19,086.0319,865.0220,667.61
Year 5 PV (M)18,958.5219,930.6320,942.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)497,829.10523,355.76549,918.98
Equity Value (M)592,928.03621,362.99650,913.14
Shares Outstanding (M)43,840.7443,840.7443,840.74
Fair Value$13.52$14.17$14.85
Upside / Downside239.81%256.11%273.05%

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