Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Huaneng Power International, Inc. (600011.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.04 - $137.76$49.94
Multi-Stage$25.57 - $28.01$26.77
Blended Fair Value$38.36
Current Price$7.06
Upside443.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.57%-0.39%0.870.710.790.920.840.810.770.891.010.87
YoY Growth--22.80%-10.42%-13.82%9.95%3.70%5.50%-13.56%-12.63%16.94%-4.55%
Dividend Yield--12.63%7.74%9.27%13.34%19.01%17.24%11.49%12.91%14.13%10.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,563.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,358.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,205.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,912.701,820.441,092.26
Cash Retained (M)6,205.376,205.376,205.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,912.70-1,820.44-1,092.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,292.684,384.945,113.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16,377.9616,377.9616,377.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.270.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.270.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.780.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate3.70%4.70%5.70%
Fair Value$28.04$49.94$137.76
Upside / Downside297.14%607.43%1,851.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,563.4815,248.6115,965.9716,717.0817,503.5218,326.9618,876.77
Payout Ratio57.39%63.91%70.43%76.96%83.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,358.119,745.8011,245.5612,864.8514,611.6216,494.2717,461.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate3.70%4.70%5.70%
Year 1 PV (M)9,077.609,165.139,252.67
Year 2 PV (M)9,756.379,945.4310,136.31
Year 3 PV (M)10,395.9910,699.6411,009.14
Year 4 PV (M)10,997.9811,428.3611,871.25
Year 5 PV (M)11,563.8212,132.2112,722.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)367,000.43385,039.53403,781.09
Equity Value (M)418,792.20438,410.31458,773.21
Shares Outstanding (M)16,377.9616,377.9616,377.96
Fair Value$25.57$26.77$28.01
Upside / Downside262.19%279.15%296.77%

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