Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China World Trade Center Co., Ltd. (600007.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.81 - $175.92$65.21
Multi-Stage$33.90 - $37.08$35.46
Blended Fair Value$50.34
Current Price$20.36
Upside147.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.77%14.08%1.360.770.700.510.500.450.480.460.350.39
YoY Growth--76.00%10.72%35.67%3.20%10.82%-7.47%6.06%29.10%-9.20%7.29%
Dividend Yield--5.90%3.08%4.08%3.17%4.13%3.40%3.23%3.20%1.77%2.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,184.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,133.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)236.82148.0188.81
Cash Retained (M)50.7250.7250.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-236.82-148.01-88.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)-186.10-97.29-38.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,006.061,006.061,006.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.18-0.10-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share1.131.131.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.18-0.10-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.031.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Fair Value$36.81$65.21$175.92
Upside / Downside80.78%220.29%764.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,184.111,240.591,299.771,361.771,426.731,494.791,539.63
Payout Ratio95.72%94.57%93.43%92.29%91.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,133.381,173.271,214.371,256.731,300.371,345.311,424.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate3.77%4.77%5.77%
Year 1 PV (M)1,091.911,102.441,112.96
Year 2 PV (M)1,051.811,072.181,092.74
Year 3 PV (M)1,013.021,042.591,072.73
Year 4 PV (M)975.521,013.671,052.92
Year 5 PV (M)939.25985.391,033.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,032.4230,458.5331,940.13
Equity Value (M)34,103.9335,674.7937,304.80
Shares Outstanding (M)1,006.061,006.061,006.06
Fair Value$33.90$35.46$37.08
Upside / Downside66.50%74.17%82.12%

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