Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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POYA International Co., Ltd. (5904.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,385.09 - $5,425.25$5,084.26
Multi-Stage$903.85 - $988.45$945.38
Blended Fair Value$3,014.82
Current Price$497.03
Upside506.57%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.15%17.16%20.5023.0310.4617.2315.7514.5111.989.747.916.57
YoY Growth---11.01%120.12%-39.26%9.36%8.57%21.15%23.02%23.12%20.39%56.17%
Dividend Yield--4.33%4.77%1.89%4.61%2.83%3.63%3.52%2.83%2.40%2.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,892.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,173.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)719.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)578.49361.55216.93
Cash Retained (M)719.08719.08719.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-578.49-361.55-216.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)140.59357.52502.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)106.03106.03106.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.333.374.74
LTM Dividend per Share20.5020.5020.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.333.374.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend21.8223.8725.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,385.09$5,084.26$5,425.25
Upside / Downside581.06%922.93%991.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,892.433,080.443,280.663,493.913,721.013,962.884,081.76
Payout Ratio75.14%78.11%81.08%84.06%87.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,173.352,406.172,660.082,936.833,238.323,566.593,775.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,244.852,266.122,287.40
Year 2 PV (M)2,315.332,359.442,403.95
Year 3 PV (M)2,384.832,453.292,523.05
Year 4 PV (M)2,453.342,547.692,644.73
Year 5 PV (M)2,520.872,642.632,769.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)83,914.6187,967.7292,175.95
Equity Value (M)95,833.83100,236.88104,804.13
Shares Outstanding (M)106.03106.03106.03
Fair Value$903.85$945.38$988.45
Upside / Downside81.85%90.21%98.87%

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