Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Tsuruya Co., Ltd. (5386.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$123.49 - $173.10$148.18
Multi-Stage$330.17 - $364.20$346.84
Blended Fair Value$247.51
Current Price$416.00
Upside-40.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS-5.53%0.00%11.525.107.3912.046.8615.310.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--125.80%-30.95%-38.67%75.47%-55.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.92%1.36%1.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)156.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.3119.5711.74
Cash Retained (M)66.4166.4166.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.31-19.57-11.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)35.1046.8454.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.527.527.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.676.237.27
LTM Dividend per Share11.9811.9811.98
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.676.237.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.6518.2119.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-5.87%-4.87%-3.87%
Fair Value$123.49$148.18$173.10
Upside / Downside-70.31%-64.38%-58.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)156.56148.94141.69134.80128.23121.99125.65
Payout Ratio57.58%64.06%70.55%77.03%83.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.1595.4299.96103.84107.10109.79116.23

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-5.87%-4.87%-3.87%
Year 1 PV (M)88.3989.3390.27
Year 2 PV (M)85.7787.6089.45
Year 3 PV (M)82.5385.1887.90
Year 4 PV (M)78.8482.2585.76
Year 5 PV (M)74.8778.9383.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,073.532,186.042,303.37
Equity Value (M)2,483.932,609.332,739.92
Shares Outstanding (M)7.527.527.52
Fair Value$330.17$346.84$364.20
Upside / Downside-20.63%-16.63%-12.45%

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