Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chia Chang Co., Ltd (4942.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.37 - $22.70$19.54
Multi-Stage$47.04 - $51.91$49.43
Blended Fair Value$34.48
Current Price$36.30
Upside-5.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.65%2.78%2.292.482.982.482.482.481.191.491.251.59
YoY Growth---8.00%-16.67%20.00%0.00%0.00%108.33%-20.00%19.27%-21.63%-8.26%
Dividend Yield--5.66%5.47%7.83%5.19%5.89%8.51%3.00%6.45%4.82%7.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)424.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)284.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.8053.0031.80
Cash Retained (M)139.29139.29139.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.80-53.00-31.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.4886.28107.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)143.27143.27143.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.600.75
LTM Dividend per Share1.991.991.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.600.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.372.592.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-6.81%-5.81%-4.81%
Fair Value$16.37$19.54$22.70
Upside / Downside-54.91%-46.17%-37.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)424.02399.40376.21354.36333.79314.41323.84
Payout Ratio67.15%71.72%76.29%80.86%85.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)284.74286.45287.01286.54285.16282.97299.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-6.81%-5.81%-4.81%
Year 1 PV (M)265.68268.53271.38
Year 2 PV (M)246.89252.22257.60
Year 3 PV (M)228.61236.04243.64
Year 4 PV (M)211.00220.20229.70
Year 5 PV (M)194.19204.84215.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,593.195,899.796,219.68
Equity Value (M)6,739.567,081.627,437.95
Shares Outstanding (M)143.27143.27143.27
Fair Value$47.04$49.43$51.91
Upside / Downside29.59%36.16%43.01%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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