Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Noevir Holdings Co., Ltd. (4928.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,458.94 - $9,812.93$6,413.72
Multi-Stage$6,276.90 - $6,874.10$6,569.90
Blended Fair Value$6,491.81
Current Price$4,465.00
Upside45.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.39%13.09%224.94220.22214.93209.80205.00199.88179.97155.61124.49103.70
YoY Growth--2.14%2.47%2.44%2.34%2.56%11.06%15.65%25.00%20.05%57.77%
Dividend Yield--5.04%4.50%4.18%3.62%3.80%4.37%3.08%3.26%1.49%2.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,030.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,683.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)347.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,606.001,003.75602.25
Cash Retained (M)347.00347.00347.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,606.00-1,003.75-602.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1,259.00-656.75-255.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)34.1634.1634.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share-36.86-19.23-7.47
LTM Dividend per Share224.94224.94224.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share-36.86-19.23-7.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend188.08205.71217.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Fair Value$4,458.94$6,413.72$9,812.93
Upside / Downside-0.14%43.64%119.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,030.008,280.518,538.838,805.219,079.919,363.179,644.06
Payout Ratio95.68%94.54%93.41%92.27%91.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,683.007,828.647,975.898,124.708,275.048,426.858,920.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate2.12%3.12%4.12%
Year 1 PV (M)7,284.547,355.877,427.21
Year 2 PV (M)6,905.757,041.667,178.89
Year 3 PV (M)6,545.686,739.876,937.85
Year 4 PV (M)6,203.456,450.036,703.89
Year 5 PV (M)5,878.206,171.706,476.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)181,576.26190,642.46200,067.24
Equity Value (M)214,393.88224,401.58234,791.89
Shares Outstanding (M)34.1634.1634.16
Fair Value$6,276.90$6,569.90$6,874.10
Upside / Downside40.58%47.14%53.96%

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