Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

APAC Opto Electronics Inc. (4908.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.49 - $38.51$30.92
Multi-Stage$35.56 - $38.89$37.19
Blended Fair Value$34.06
Current Price$86.50
Upside-60.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS22.78%0.00%2.403.001.801.101.100.860.810.650.400.00
YoY Growth---20.00%66.67%63.64%0.00%27.91%6.46%25.17%62.34%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.12%2.74%5.55%3.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)189.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)136.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)37.9823.7414.24
Cash Retained (M)53.0053.0053.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-37.98-23.74-14.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.0229.2738.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)78.1978.1978.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.370.50
LTM Dividend per Share1.751.751.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.370.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.942.122.25
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate0.74%1.74%2.74%
Fair Value$24.49$30.92$38.51
Upside / Downside-71.69%-64.26%-55.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)189.88193.18196.53199.95203.42206.95213.16
Payout Ratio72.09%75.67%79.25%82.83%86.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)136.88146.18155.76165.63175.79186.26197.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate0.74%1.74%2.74%
Year 1 PV (M)133.12134.44135.76
Year 2 PV (M)129.18131.75134.36
Year 3 PV (M)125.09128.85132.69
Year 4 PV (M)120.91125.78130.80
Year 5 PV (M)116.66122.57128.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,155.732,264.872,378.39
Equity Value (M)2,780.692,908.273,040.71
Shares Outstanding (M)78.1978.1978.19
Fair Value$35.56$37.19$38.89
Upside / Downside-58.89%-57.00%-55.04%

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