Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Sawai Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (4887.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,052.93 - $1,832.08$1,386.55
Multi-Stage$3,315.65 - $3,653.75$3,481.37
Blended Fair Value$2,433.96
Current Price$2,004.50
Upside21.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.54%5.15%50.8747.7247.7147.7147.7049.5347.6940.1740.1733.94
YoY Growth--6.60%0.02%0.00%0.02%-3.69%3.85%18.74%0.00%18.35%10.23%
Dividend Yield--2.78%2.15%3.95%3.48%2.89%2.73%2.63%2.21%2.21%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,883.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,340.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,543.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,976.601,235.38741.23
Cash Retained (M)3,543.003,543.003,543.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,976.60-1,235.38-741.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,566.402,307.632,801.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.1319.3423.48
LTM Dividend per Share53.1353.1353.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.1319.3423.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend66.2672.4776.61
WACC / Discount Rate4.91%4.91%4.91%
Growth Rate-1.30%-0.30%0.70%
Fair Value$1,052.93$1,386.55$1,832.08
Upside / Downside-47.47%-30.83%-8.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,883.009,853.449,823.969,794.579,765.289,736.0610,028.15
Payout Ratio64.15%69.32%74.49%79.66%84.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,340.006,830.457,317.907,802.388,283.898,762.469,276.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.91%4.91%4.91%
Growth Rate-1.30%-0.30%0.70%
Year 1 PV (M)6,445.366,510.666,575.96
Year 2 PV (M)6,516.026,648.736,782.77
Year 3 PV (M)6,555.736,757.026,962.38
Year 4 PV (M)6,567.906,838.157,116.65
Year 5 PV (M)6,555.656,894.557,247.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)363,015.65381,781.77401,316.07
Equity Value (M)395,656.31415,430.86436,001.15
Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
Fair Value$3,315.65$3,481.37$3,653.75
Upside / Downside65.41%73.68%82.28%

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