Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Simplex Holdings, Inc. (4373.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$288.66 - $412.10$349.25
Multi-Stage$451.97 - $496.17$473.64
Blended Fair Value$411.45
Current Price$1,086.25
Upside-62.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202013
DPS0.00%0.00%10.416.095.440.000.000.001.180.000.000.00
YoY Growth--70.79%12.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.88%0.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,964.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,847.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,117.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,992.801,245.50747.30
Cash Retained (M)7,117.007,117.007,117.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,992.80-1,245.50-747.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,124.205,871.506,369.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)234.88234.88234.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share21.8225.0027.12
LTM Dividend per Share12.1212.1212.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share21.8225.0027.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend33.9437.1239.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$288.66$349.25$412.10
Upside / Downside-73.43%-67.85%-62.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,964.009,864.369,765.729,668.069,571.389,475.669,759.93
Payout Ratio28.57%40.86%53.14%65.43%77.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,847.004,030.415,189.866,325.737,438.368,528.109,027.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.52%9.52%9.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3,642.843,680.013,717.18
Year 2 PV (M)4,239.724,326.694,414.54
Year 3 PV (M)4,670.714,815.154,962.55
Year 4 PV (M)4,964.095,169.835,381.90
Year 5 PV (M)5,144.065,411.925,690.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)83,499.2087,847.1992,374.46
Equity Value (M)106,160.62111,250.80116,541.46
Shares Outstanding (M)234.88234.88234.88
Fair Value$451.97$473.64$496.17
Upside / Downside-58.39%-56.40%-54.32%

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