Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (4307.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,707.94 - $8,643.26$5,438.97
Multi-Stage$2,678.46 - $2,923.32$2,798.68
Blended Fair Value$4,118.82
Current Price$5,673.00
Upside-27.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS11.42%10.62%58.2148.2044.3339.5735.4833.9037.3436.3831.9328.75
YoY Growth--20.77%8.71%12.03%11.52%4.69%-9.23%2.66%13.92%11.08%35.54%
Dividend Yield--1.01%1.06%1.12%1.10%0.97%1.16%2.09%2.03%2.16%2.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101,673.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36,053.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)65,620.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20,334.6012,709.137,625.48
Cash Retained (M)65,620.0065,620.0065,620.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-20,334.60-12,709.13-7,625.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)45,285.4052,910.8857,994.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)572.28572.28572.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share79.1392.46101.34
LTM Dividend per Share63.0063.0063.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share79.1392.46101.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend142.13155.45164.34
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,707.94$5,438.97$8,643.26
Upside / Downside-34.64%-4.13%52.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101,673.00108,281.75115,320.06122,815.86130,798.89139,300.82143,479.85
Payout Ratio35.46%46.37%57.28%68.18%79.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36,053.0050,207.8766,050.5583,740.65103,451.40125,370.74132,718.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.54%9.54%9.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)45,403.1845,833.5546,263.91
Year 2 PV (M)54,013.8955,042.7056,081.22
Year 3 PV (M)61,926.9863,704.6865,516.08
Year 4 PV (M)69,182.2171,842.7674,579.33
Year 5 PV (M)75,817.3879,479.3983,281.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,226,496.461,285,736.701,347,244.20
Equity Value (M)1,532,840.111,601,639.781,672,966.29
Shares Outstanding (M)572.28572.28572.28
Fair Value$2,678.46$2,798.68$2,923.32
Upside / Downside-52.79%-50.67%-48.47%

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