Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Shih-Kuen Plastics Co., Ltd. (4305.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.48 - $51.59$41.90
Multi-Stage$77.28 - $84.91$81.02
Blended Fair Value$61.46
Current Price$40.80
Upside50.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-0.78%0.00%2.461.971.771.772.072.560.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--25.00%11.11%0.00%-14.29%-19.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.50%4.90%5.62%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)203.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)176.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)27.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.7725.4815.29
Cash Retained (M)27.8227.8227.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.77-25.48-15.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)-12.952.3412.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.9055.9055.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.230.040.22
LTM Dividend per Share3.153.153.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.230.040.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.923.193.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$33.48$41.90$51.59
Upside / Downside-17.93%2.70%26.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)203.87201.83199.81197.81195.83193.87199.69
Payout Ratio86.35%87.08%87.81%88.54%89.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)176.05175.76175.46175.14174.82174.49184.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)163.30164.97166.63
Year 2 PV (M)151.47154.58157.72
Year 3 PV (M)140.49144.83149.26
Year 4 PV (M)130.29135.69141.26
Year 5 PV (M)120.83127.12133.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,613.553,801.723,997.64
Equity Value (M)4,319.934,528.904,746.18
Shares Outstanding (M)55.9055.9055.90
Fair Value$77.28$81.02$84.91
Upside / Downside89.42%98.58%108.11%

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