Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jarir Marketing Company (4190.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.36 - $40.72$25.52
Multi-Stage$19.49 - $21.30$20.38
Blended Fair Value$22.95
Current Price$13.95
Upside64.50%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.37%5.97%0.830.830.770.790.770.820.740.620.530.57
YoY Growth--0.61%7.14%-2.53%2.60%-5.52%9.95%19.08%16.90%-6.70%22.74%
Dividend Yield--6.38%5.69%4.72%4.01%4.23%6.38%4.69%4.74%5.26%6.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,014.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,008.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)202.94126.8476.10
Cash Retained (M)6.706.706.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-202.94-126.84-76.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)-196.24-120.14-69.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.001,200.001,200.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.10-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.10-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Fair Value$17.36$25.52$40.72
Upside / Downside24.43%82.92%191.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,014.701,056.841,100.741,146.461,194.081,243.681,280.99
Payout Ratio99.34%97.47%95.60%93.74%91.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,008.001,030.131,052.351,074.651,096.981,119.311,184.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Year 1 PV (M)951.95961.18970.40
Year 2 PV (M)898.68916.19933.87
Year 3 PV (M)848.07872.98898.36
Year 4 PV (M)800.00831.47863.87
Year 5 PV (M)754.33791.61830.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,133.6220,079.2121,061.82
Equity Value (M)23,386.6524,452.6425,558.68
Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.001,200.001,200.00
Fair Value$19.49$20.38$21.30
Upside / Downside39.71%46.07%52.68%

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