Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Pacific Hospital Supply Co., Ltd (4126.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$99.53 - $208.07$140.58
Multi-Stage$125.26 - $137.04$131.04
Blended Fair Value$135.81
Current Price$95.30
Upside42.51%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.53%7.76%4.794.194.494.193.632.902.272.272.272.27
YoY Growth--14.29%-6.67%7.14%15.47%25.00%28.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.18%4.63%5.32%5.84%4.92%4.21%3.33%3.31%3.08%3.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)404.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)348.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.9650.6030.36
Cash Retained (M)56.3156.3156.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.96-50.60-30.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)-24.655.7125.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)72.7372.7372.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.340.080.36
LTM Dividend per Share4.794.794.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.340.080.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.454.875.15
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate2.52%3.52%4.52%
Fair Value$99.53$140.58$208.07
Upside / Downside4.44%47.52%118.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)404.79419.06433.83449.12464.94481.33495.77
Payout Ratio86.09%86.87%87.65%88.44%89.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)348.48364.04380.26397.18414.81433.20458.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate2.52%3.52%4.52%
Year 1 PV (M)336.59339.87343.16
Year 2 PV (M)325.08331.45337.89
Year 3 PV (M)313.94323.21332.67
Year 4 PV (M)303.15315.16327.51
Year 5 PV (M)292.72307.28322.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,538.877,913.778,303.45
Equity Value (M)9,110.359,530.759,967.08
Shares Outstanding (M)72.7372.7372.73
Fair Value$125.26$131.04$137.04
Upside / Downside31.43%37.50%43.79%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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