Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Soda Co., Ltd. (4041.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$47,519.64 - $55,986.19$52,467.26
Multi-Stage$87,517.87 - $96,080.13$91,718.91
Blended Fair Value$72,093.08
Current Price$3,450.00
Upside1,989.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS29.52%18.47%120.14136.66108.8763.8148.0032.9632.9432.9636.2741.70
YoY Growth---12.09%25.52%70.63%32.93%45.64%0.06%-0.06%-9.14%-13.01%88.94%
Dividend Yield--3.96%5.19%4.21%2.92%2.99%2.33%2.35%2.15%2.34%4.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,460.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,950.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,510.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,092.001,932.501,159.50
Cash Retained (M)10,510.0010,510.0010,510.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,092.00-1,932.50-1,159.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,418.008,577.509,350.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)54.9254.9254.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share135.08156.19170.27
LTM Dividend per Share90.1490.1490.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share135.08156.19170.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend225.21246.33260.40
WACC / Discount Rate-16.31%-16.31%-16.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$47,519.64$52,467.26$55,986.19
Upside / Downside1,277.38%1,420.79%1,522.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,460.0016,464.9017,535.1218,674.9019,888.7721,181.5421,816.99
Payout Ratio32.02%43.61%55.21%66.81%78.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,950.007,181.089,681.2912,476.1915,593.5219,063.3920,180.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-16.31%-16.31%-16.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8,499.858,580.418,660.98
Year 2 PV (M)13,563.6213,821.9714,082.75
Year 3 PV (M)20,689.2821,283.1921,888.37
Year 4 PV (M)30,607.5631,784.6432,995.35
Year 5 PV (M)44,290.0246,429.2448,650.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,688,590.264,915,050.925,150,178.76
Equity Value (M)4,806,240.575,036,950.375,276,456.55
Shares Outstanding (M)54.9254.9254.92
Fair Value$87,517.87$91,718.91$96,080.13
Upside / Downside2,436.75%2,558.52%2,684.93%

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