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Greentown China Holdings Limited (3900.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$114.12 - $186.70$174.97
Multi-Stage$31.41 - $34.32$32.84
Blended Fair Value$103.90
Current Price$8.62
Upside1,105.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.87%1.61%0.430.500.460.340.300.200.170.100.000.00
YoY Growth---14.00%9.62%32.29%16.69%49.84%15.17%67.01%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--4.94%6.94%4.53%3.37%3.09%2.30%3.32%1.13%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,378.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,354.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)475.78297.36178.42
Cash Retained (M)24.1524.1524.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-475.78-297.36-178.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)-451.63-273.22-154.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,533.982,533.982,533.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.18-0.11-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.18-0.11-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.750.820.87
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$114.12$174.97$186.70
Upside / Downside1,223.94%1,929.80%2,065.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,378.912,533.532,698.212,873.603,060.383,259.313,357.09
Payout Ratio98.98%97.19%95.39%93.59%91.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,354.762,462.292,573.852,689.512,809.342,933.383,105.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,296.892,318.672,340.44
Year 2 PV (M)2,239.692,282.352,325.41
Year 3 PV (M)2,183.132,245.802,309.65
Year 4 PV (M)2,127.212,209.022,293.16
Year 5 PV (M)2,071.942,172.012,275.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)68,665.5371,982.1075,425.61
Equity Value (M)79,584.3983,209.9486,970.19
Shares Outstanding (M)2,533.982,533.982,533.98
Fair Value$31.41$32.84$34.32
Upside / Downside264.35%280.95%298.16%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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