Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited (3808.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$271.50 - $884.70$829.10
Multi-Stage$117.48 - $128.51$122.89
Blended Fair Value$476.00
Current Price$20.89
Upside2,178.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.60%48.21%1.630.300.570.880.360.570.590.070.030.05
YoY Growth--452.21%-47.80%-35.52%143.38%-36.22%-3.71%736.43%174.85%-46.30%49.13%
Dividend Yield--7.62%2.16%5.89%8.98%2.16%3.81%5.67%0.96%0.52%1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,230.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,297.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,932.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,446.061,528.79917.27
Cash Retained (M)6,932.896,932.896,932.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,446.06-1,528.79-917.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,486.835,404.106,015.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,749.282,749.282,749.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.631.972.19
LTM Dividend per Share1.931.931.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.631.972.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.563.894.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$271.50$829.10$884.70
Upside / Downside1,199.66%3,868.87%4,135.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,230.3113,025.2713,871.9214,773.5915,733.8816,756.5817,259.28
Payout Ratio43.31%52.65%61.99%71.33%80.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,297.426,857.958,598.9710,537.3512,691.3815,080.9215,964.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,356.076,416.326,476.57
Year 2 PV (M)7,386.457,527.147,669.16
Year 3 PV (M)8,389.098,629.918,875.30
Year 4 PV (M)9,364.569,724.6910,095.12
Year 5 PV (M)10,313.3810,811.5211,328.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)281,177.54294,758.52308,859.28
Equity Value (M)322,987.09337,868.11353,304.14
Shares Outstanding (M)2,749.282,749.282,749.28
Fair Value$117.48$122.89$128.51
Upside / Downside462.38%488.29%515.16%

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