Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Lonking Holdings Limited (3339.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.04 - $4.34$3.68
Multi-Stage$7.51 - $8.28$7.89
Blended Fair Value$5.78
Current Price$1.92
Upside201.14%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.71%4.13%0.080.090.180.280.230.170.130.050.010.05
YoY Growth---16.30%-48.44%-35.51%21.67%33.31%33.28%133.38%284.53%-72.23%-0.02%
Dividend Yield--5.43%8.38%14.78%15.58%11.28%8.18%7.21%1.87%0.96%5.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,988.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)724.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,263.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)397.63248.52149.11
Cash Retained (M)1,263.191,263.191,263.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-397.63-248.52-149.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)865.561,014.671,114.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,280.104,280.104,280.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate-4.75%-3.75%-2.75%
Fair Value$3.04$3.68$4.34
Upside / Downside58.42%91.55%125.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,988.171,913.541,841.711,772.581,706.051,642.011,691.27
Payout Ratio36.46%47.17%57.88%68.59%79.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)724.98902.651,065.961,215.741,352.781,477.811,564.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.88%6.88%6.88%
Growth Rate-4.75%-3.75%-2.75%
Year 1 PV (M)835.75844.52853.30
Year 2 PV (M)913.81933.09952.58
Year 3 PV (M)964.96995.671,027.03
Year 4 PV (M)994.141,036.561,080.31
Year 5 PV (M)1,005.541,059.441,115.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,414.2928,883.9530,415.98
Equity Value (M)32,128.4833,753.2435,444.84
Shares Outstanding (M)4,280.104,280.104,280.10
Fair Value$7.51$7.89$8.28
Upside / Downside290.96%310.73%331.32%

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