Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Resources Pharmaceutical Group Limited (3320.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.77 - $221.68$69.71
Multi-Stage$30.64 - $33.57$32.07
Blended Fair Value$50.89
Current Price$5.12
Upside893.96%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.59%0.00%0.260.150.150.120.110.130.100.080.000.00
YoY Growth--66.76%2.73%25.00%9.09%-15.41%34.56%28.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.51%3.00%2.37%3.38%2.76%1.80%0.95%0.74%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,099.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,552.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,546.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,419.81887.38532.43
Cash Retained (M)4,546.644,546.644,546.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,419.81-887.38-532.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,126.823,659.254,014.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,282.516,282.516,282.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.500.580.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.500.580.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.991.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Fair Value$37.77$69.71$221.68
Upside / Downside637.76%1,261.45%4,229.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,099.077,457.197,833.398,228.558,643.669,079.709,352.09
Payout Ratio35.95%46.76%57.57%68.38%79.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,552.433,487.254,509.895,626.836,844.998,171.738,650.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.04%5.04%6.04%
Year 1 PV (M)3,242.193,273.353,304.51
Year 2 PV (M)3,898.313,973.604,049.62
Year 3 PV (M)4,521.984,653.634,787.80
Year 4 PV (M)5,114.385,313.855,519.11
Year 5 PV (M)5,676.615,954.706,243.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)170,011.91178,340.62186,992.58
Equity Value (M)192,465.37201,509.74210,897.20
Shares Outstanding (M)6,282.516,282.516,282.51
Fair Value$30.64$32.07$33.57
Upside / Downside498.34%526.46%555.64%

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