Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NIPPON REIT Investment Corporation (3296.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$156,667.56 - $285,516.97$210,140.60
Multi-Stage$266,160.20 - $292,091.30$278,878.38
Blended Fair Value$244,509.49
Current Price$88,400.00
Upside176.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.29%36.82%4,619.344,318.945,135.155,741.604,542.694,553.593,869.833,501.883,291.911,753.87
YoY Growth--6.96%-15.89%-10.56%26.39%-0.24%17.67%10.51%6.38%87.69%772.98%
Dividend Yield--6.07%5.14%5.91%5.60%4.90%3.81%4.25%4.33%4.62%2.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,723.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,570.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,152.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,944.652,465.401,479.24
Cash Retained (M)7,152.757,152.757,152.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,944.65-2,465.40-1,479.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,208.104,687.355,673.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1.791.791.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share1,790.352,615.873,166.22
LTM Dividend per Share7,015.237,015.237,015.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share1,790.352,615.873,166.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend8,805.589,631.1010,181.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate0.81%1.81%2.81%
Fair Value$156,667.56$210,140.60$285,516.97
Upside / Downside77.23%137.72%222.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,723.2420,081.1620,445.5820,816.6121,194.3821,579.0022,226.37
Payout Ratio63.73%68.99%74.24%79.49%84.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,570.4813,853.4915,178.9316,547.9117,961.5719,421.1020,559.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate0.81%1.81%2.81%
Year 1 PV (M)12,882.5013,010.2913,138.07
Year 2 PV (M)13,125.7213,387.4013,651.67
Year 3 PV (M)13,306.5613,706.4714,114.32
Year 4 PV (M)13,430.9913,971.8714,528.93
Year 5 PV (M)13,504.5014,187.6914,898.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)410,678.20431,454.26453,062.79
Equity Value (M)476,928.48499,717.98523,394.02
Shares Outstanding (M)1.791.791.79
Fair Value$266,160.20$278,878.38$292,091.30
Upside / Downside201.09%215.47%230.42%

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