Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Riyadh Cement Company (3092.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$137.00 - $795.55$254.65
Multi-Stage$117.99 - $129.26$123.52
Blended Fair Value$189.08
Current Price$32.12
Upside488.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS13.08%0.00%1.761.551.621.881.940.950.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--13.19%-4.48%-13.76%-3.06%104.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.45%4.54%5.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)487.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)258.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)228.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)97.5060.9436.56
Cash Retained (M)228.72228.72228.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-97.50-60.94-36.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)131.22167.78192.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.401.60
LTM Dividend per Share2.162.162.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.401.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.253.553.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.85%4.85%5.85%
Fair Value$137.00$254.65$795.55
Upside / Downside326.53%692.81%2,376.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)487.50511.16535.96561.97589.24617.83636.37
Payout Ratio53.08%60.47%67.85%75.23%82.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)258.78309.08363.65422.79486.81556.05588.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.85%4.85%5.85%
Year 1 PV (M)287.94290.72293.49
Year 2 PV (M)315.62321.72327.89
Year 3 PV (M)341.85351.82361.99
Year 4 PV (M)366.70381.03395.78
Year 5 PV (M)390.22409.37429.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,456.4213,067.8013,702.95
Equity Value (M)14,158.7514,822.4615,511.35
Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
Fair Value$117.99$123.52$129.26
Upside / Downside267.34%284.56%302.43%

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