Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Saudi Cement Company (3030.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.95 - $30.77$25.67
Multi-Stage$56.11 - $61.84$58.92
Blended Fair Value$42.29
Current Price$39.58
Upside6.86%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.16%-10.84%2.243.333.423.503.503.253.255.005.755.50
YoY Growth---32.68%-2.78%-2.17%0.00%7.69%0.00%-35.00%-13.04%4.55%-22.11%
Dividend Yield--4.89%7.14%6.11%5.75%5.27%6.63%5.56%9.30%9.61%8.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)424.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)251.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)173.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.9453.0931.85
Cash Retained (M)173.69173.69173.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.94-53.09-31.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.75120.60141.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)153.00153.00153.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.580.790.93
LTM Dividend per Share1.641.641.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.580.790.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.222.432.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-3.87%-2.87%-1.87%
Fair Value$20.95$25.67$30.77
Upside / Downside-47.07%-35.14%-22.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)424.72412.52400.67389.16377.98367.12378.13
Payout Ratio59.10%65.28%71.46%77.64%83.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)251.03269.31286.33302.15316.82330.41349.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-3.87%-2.87%-1.87%
Year 1 PV (M)250.70253.31255.91
Year 2 PV (M)248.13253.32258.56
Year 3 PV (M)243.75251.43259.28
Year 4 PV (M)237.93247.98258.35
Year 5 PV (M)230.98243.25256.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,373.327,764.908,172.95
Equity Value (M)8,584.809,014.199,461.09
Shares Outstanding (M)153.00153.00153.00
Fair Value$56.11$58.92$61.84
Upside / Downside41.76%48.85%56.23%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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