Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Hangzhou Zhengqiang Corporation Limited (301119.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$185.15 - $218.16$204.44
Multi-Stage$152.93 - $167.87$160.26
Blended Fair Value$182.35
Current Price$38.50
Upside373.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS68.57%0.00%0.230.150.060.000.000.020.000.970.000.00
YoY Growth--59.40%156.16%0.00%0.00%-100.00%3,743.85%-99.95%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.74%0.67%0.26%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)115.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)109.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.1414.468.68
Cash Retained (M)6.596.596.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.14-14.46-8.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)-16.54-7.87-2.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)104.68104.68104.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.971.02
WACC / Discount Rate-2.01%-2.01%-2.01%
Growth Rate4.71%5.71%6.71%
Fair Value$185.15$204.44$218.16
Upside / Downside380.90%431.01%466.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)115.68122.29129.27136.65144.46152.71157.29
Payout Ratio94.30%93.44%92.58%91.72%90.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)109.09114.26119.68125.34131.26137.44145.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-2.01%-2.01%-2.01%
Growth Rate4.71%5.71%6.71%
Year 1 PV (M)115.51116.61117.72
Year 2 PV (M)122.30124.65127.02
Year 3 PV (M)129.48133.22137.04
Year 4 PV (M)137.07142.38147.84
Year 5 PV (M)145.09152.15159.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,359.2116,106.7616,883.13
Equity Value (M)16,008.6516,775.7717,572.23
Shares Outstanding (M)104.68104.68104.68
Fair Value$152.93$160.26$167.87
Upside / Downside297.23%316.26%336.03%

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