Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co. Ltd. (301012.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.84 - $28.25$14.26
Multi-Stage$5.94 - $6.48$6.20
Blended Fair Value$10.23
Current Price$24.50
Upside-58.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172013
DPS10.64%0.00%0.120.090.110.020.050.080.040.080.000.00
YoY Growth--44.97%-20.59%472.69%-60.25%-36.74%72.03%-44.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.70%0.58%0.10%0.19%0.30%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)51.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.286.433.86
Cash Retained (M)24.7624.7624.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.28-6.43-3.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)14.4818.3320.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)155.02155.02155.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.84$14.26$28.25
Upside / Downside-63.93%-41.80%15.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)51.4254.7758.3262.1266.1570.4572.57
Payout Ratio51.85%59.48%67.11%74.74%82.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.6632.5739.1446.4354.4963.4167.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)29.6929.9830.26
Year 2 PV (M)32.5333.1533.77
Year 3 PV (M)35.1736.1837.21
Year 4 PV (M)37.6339.0840.57
Year 5 PV (M)39.9241.8543.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)745.57781.58818.97
Equity Value (M)920.51961.811,004.62
Shares Outstanding (M)155.02155.02155.02
Fair Value$5.94$6.20$6.48
Upside / Downside-75.76%-74.68%-73.55%

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