Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.LTD (300957.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.75 - $9.91$8.27
Multi-Stage$10.72 - $11.73$11.22
Blended Fair Value$9.74
Current Price$45.08
Upside-78.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS6.59%0.00%0.630.820.130.460.250.460.090.000.000.00
YoY Growth---22.59%511.50%-70.91%86.60%-46.46%410.59%2,617.77%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.47%1.32%0.10%0.25%0.15%0.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)360.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)264.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)95.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.0345.0227.01
Cash Retained (M)95.6095.6095.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.03-45.02-27.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.5750.5868.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)414.20414.20414.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.120.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.640.640.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.120.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.760.80
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate-0.88%0.12%1.12%
Fair Value$6.75$8.27$9.91
Upside / Downside-85.02%-81.65%-78.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)360.16360.60361.03361.47361.91362.34373.21
Payout Ratio73.46%76.76%80.07%83.38%86.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)264.56276.81289.09301.40313.74326.11345.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate-0.88%0.12%1.12%
Year 1 PV (M)250.66253.19255.72
Year 2 PV (M)237.05241.86246.72
Year 3 PV (M)223.80230.64237.62
Year 4 PV (M)210.95219.60228.50
Year 5 PV (M)198.56208.78219.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,321.033,491.963,669.87
Equity Value (M)4,442.054,646.034,857.85
Shares Outstanding (M)414.20414.20414.20
Fair Value$10.72$11.22$11.73
Upside / Downside-76.21%-75.12%-73.98%

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