Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company

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Industry

Sector

Ningbo KBE Electrical Technology Co.,Ltd. (300863.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$89.26 - $232.55$217.93
Multi-Stage$33.33 - $36.47$34.87
Blended Fair Value$126.40
Current Price$40.35
Upside213.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS49.22%0.00%0.550.430.340.340.090.070.160.080.100.00
YoY Growth--27.13%27.80%-1.57%269.08%25.33%-52.44%95.81%-18.50%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.98%1.09%1.46%0.31%0.14%0.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)168.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.7521.1012.66
Cash Retained (M)97.8797.8797.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.75-21.10-12.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)64.1276.7785.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)144.32144.32144.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.530.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.530.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.941.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$89.26$217.93$232.55
Upside / Downside121.21%440.11%476.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)168.76179.73191.41203.86217.11231.22238.16
Payout Ratio42.01%51.61%61.21%70.80%80.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.8992.75117.16144.34174.56208.10220.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)86.1987.0187.82
Year 2 PV (M)101.16103.09105.03
Year 3 PV (M)115.81119.13122.52
Year 4 PV (M)130.15135.15140.30
Year 5 PV (M)144.17151.13158.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,232.814,437.264,649.53
Equity Value (M)4,810.295,032.775,263.57
Shares Outstanding (M)144.32144.32144.32
Fair Value$33.33$34.87$36.47
Upside / Downside-17.40%-13.58%-9.62%

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