Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

City Cement Company (3003.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.81 - $13.50$11.00
Multi-Stage$21.48 - $23.64$22.54
Blended Fair Value$16.77
Current Price$15.76
Upside6.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.73%-6.10%0.900.900.901.251.000.540.540.341.351.35
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-28.00%25.00%84.99%0.00%60.00%-75.00%0.00%-20.00%
Dividend Yield--4.12%4.39%4.37%4.50%3.85%3.19%3.54%2.22%7.99%7.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)137.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.5517.2210.33
Cash Retained (M)46.7646.7646.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.55-17.22-10.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.2129.5436.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)140.00140.00140.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.210.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.650.650.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.210.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.860.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.40%-1.40%-0.40%
Fair Value$8.81$11.00$13.50
Upside / Downside-44.07%-30.19%-14.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)137.76135.83133.93132.05130.20128.38132.23
Payout Ratio66.06%70.85%75.64%80.42%85.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.0096.23101.30106.20110.95115.54122.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-2.40%-1.40%-0.40%
Year 1 PV (M)89.5990.5191.43
Year 2 PV (M)87.8189.6291.44
Year 3 PV (M)85.7188.3791.09
Year 4 PV (M)83.3786.8490.42
Year 5 PV (M)80.8485.0689.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,580.442,715.372,855.89
Equity Value (M)3,007.763,155.783,309.73
Shares Outstanding (M)140.00140.00140.00
Fair Value$21.48$22.54$23.64
Upside / Downside36.32%43.03%50.01%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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