Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Riland Industry Group Co., Ltd (300154.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.40 - $46.41$43.50
Multi-Stage$28.00 - $30.71$29.33
Blended Fair Value$36.41
Current Price$8.45
Upside330.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.56%8.22%0.220.170.200.150.210.200.200.150.150.15
YoY Growth--31.23%-17.21%34.32%-27.47%2.11%0.12%35.79%0.00%-0.35%50.52%
Dividend Yield--1.98%2.71%3.11%2.16%3.98%3.82%2.90%2.39%1.62%1.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)94.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.8113.017.80
Cash Retained (M)9.649.649.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.81-13.01-7.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.17-3.371.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)445.87445.87445.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.010.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.22
WACC / Discount Rate1.62%1.62%1.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.40$43.50$46.41
Upside / Downside366.22%414.76%449.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.06110.82118.03125.70133.87142.57146.85
Payout Ratio90.73%90.59%90.44%90.29%90.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)94.42100.39106.74113.50120.68128.31135.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.62%1.62%1.62%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)97.8698.7999.72
Year 2 PV (M)101.44103.37105.32
Year 3 PV (M)105.14108.16111.24
Year 4 PV (M)108.98113.17117.48
Year 5 PV (M)112.96118.42124.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,958.0712,535.6513,135.33
Equity Value (M)12,484.4513,077.5613,693.17
Shares Outstanding (M)445.87445.87445.87
Fair Value$28.00$29.33$30.71
Upside / Downside231.37%247.11%263.45%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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