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Definitive Analysis

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The Nature Holdings Co., Ltd. (298540.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,282.87 - $9,690.24$7,866.39
Multi-Stage$14,459.33 - $15,893.60$15,162.47
Blended Fair Value$11,514.43
Current Price$9,950.00
Upside15.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%431.35402.11201.05201.050.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--7.27%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.79%2.55%0.72%0.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,867.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,556.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,310.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,973.411,233.38740.03
Cash Retained (M)2,310.852,310.852,310.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,973.41-1,233.38-740.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)337.441,077.471,570.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)14.4714.4714.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share23.3274.47108.57
LTM Dividend per Share522.25522.25522.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share23.3274.47108.57
(=) Adjusted Dividend545.57596.72630.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6,282.87$7,866.39$9,690.24
Upside / Downside-36.86%-20.94%-2.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,867.069,768.399,670.709,574.009,478.269,383.479,664.98
Payout Ratio76.58%79.26%81.95%84.63%87.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,556.217,742.837,924.968,102.678,276.048,445.138,940.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)7,196.167,269.597,343.02
Year 2 PV (M)6,845.406,985.827,127.66
Year 3 PV (M)6,504.766,705.936,911.20
Year 4 PV (M)6,174.856,430.776,694.57
Year 5 PV (M)5,856.146,161.086,478.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)176,627.54185,824.95195,401.57
Equity Value (M)209,204.86219,378.14229,956.61
Shares Outstanding (M)14.4714.4714.47
Fair Value$14,459.33$15,162.47$15,893.60
Upside / Downside45.32%52.39%59.73%

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