Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Zhen Yu Hardware Co., Ltd. (2947.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.45 - $33.50$28.38
Multi-Stage$38.39 - $42.06$40.19
Blended Fair Value$34.29
Current Price$90.40
Upside-62.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-8.00%0.00%1.671.394.632.992.332.530.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--20.00%-70.00%54.97%28.17%-7.82%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.16%1.91%5.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)71.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)30.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.278.925.35
Cash Retained (M)30.9030.9030.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.27-8.92-5.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.6221.9825.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.7920.7920.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.801.061.23
LTM Dividend per Share1.951.951.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.801.061.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.753.003.17
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$23.45$28.38$33.50
Upside / Downside-74.06%-68.61%-62.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)71.3670.6569.9469.2468.5567.8669.90
Payout Ratio56.70%63.36%70.02%76.68%83.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.4644.7648.9753.0957.1361.0864.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)40.4840.8941.30
Year 2 PV (M)40.0440.8641.69
Year 3 PV (M)39.2540.4741.70
Year 4 PV (M)38.1939.7741.40
Year 5 PV (M)36.9238.8440.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)603.38634.80667.51
Equity Value (M)798.25835.62874.45
Shares Outstanding (M)20.7920.7920.79
Fair Value$38.39$40.19$42.06
Upside / Downside-57.53%-55.54%-53.47%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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